[Excerpt from The Pickett Line April 2024 Issue] “How did you go bankrupt?”, Bill Gorton asks Mike Campbell on page 136 of Ernest Hemingway’s 1926 novel ‘The Sun Also Rises’. “Two ways,” Mike answers. “Gradually and then suddenly”. In Mike’s case, it was brought on by acquiring a collection of “false friends” and “probably more

[Excerpt from The Pickett Line March 2024 Issue] Tick tock…tick tock…tick tock. No, not that TikTok. That’s the sound of the supply side of the US truckload market that, much like a Timex watch as popularized by an advertising campaign launched in 1956 with former NBC news anchor John Cameron Swayze, “takes a licking and

[Excerpt from The Pickett Line February 2024 Issue] Well, we did it. We made it through another freight month Ladies and Gentlemen. And what a month it was. If you had to pick the dullest, least interesting month of the freight year, February is usually at the top of the list. The post-peak season holiday

[Excerpt from The Pickett Line January 2024 Issue] Happy (belated) New Year and Welcome to Season 4 of The Pickett Line. With January now in the rearview mirror, 2024 is officially off and running. And as is often the case, the immediate path forward for the US trucking market remains shrouded in the fog of

[Excerpt from The Pickett Line December 2023 Issue] And that’s a wrap folks. 2023 is officially in the rearview mirror and what a long, strange trip it’s been (hat tip to the Grateful Dead). We came into the year with a head of steam in search of the deflationary inflection point of the current rate

[Excerpt from The Pickett Line November 2023 Issue] As we closed last month’s issue humming bars of ‘Tomorrow’ from the 1977 Broadway musical Annie, we were reminded that despite how grim the economy and the US TL spot and contract markets still looked and felt at the time, the proverbial sun would indeed come out

[Excerpt from The Pickett Line October 2023 Issue] Well, it was fun while it lasted. But with the viral blitz of national interest behind Picket(t) Lines and organized labor actions behind us for the most part, it’s back to basics this month at Pickett Research. And if recent progress in negotiations between the UAW and

[Excerpt from The Pickett Line September 2023 Issue] It’s been a crazy week here for the team at Pickett Research, which is saying something given the inherent crazy-ness of the US Truckload Spot Market – our primary focus of study and the subject of our unwavering and arguably unhealthy obsession. We published our inaugural issue

[Excerpt from The Pickett Line August 2023 Issue] Well, it’s official. The heat was on last month in a big way – so big in fact that NASA has indeed confirmed July as the warmest month on earth, at least within the 143-year historical record. And we haven’t gotten much of a reprieve this month

[Excerpt from The Pickett Line July 2023 Issue] Well, here we are Ladies and Gentlemen. We’ve made the turn – on both the calendar and the truckload market cycle – and are now well into the back half of what has been a painfully grinding 2023 for most folks that operate on the supply side

[Excerpt from The Pickett Line June 2023 Issue] Welcome to late June 2023, where we prepare to turn the page on an eventful Q2 and begin to dig in for what has the potential to be another wild quarter ahead. You may recall that last month we turned to none other than astronaut Neil Armstrong,

[Excerpt from The Pickett Line May 2023 Issue] “Houston, we have lift off” – to quote astronaut Neil Armstrong on July 16th, 1969 as Commander of the Apollo 11 mission to land humans on the moon for the first time. After spending the last two quarters on ‘inflection watch’, anticipating the Y/Y deflationary bottom of

[Excerpt from The Pickett Line April 2023 Issue] Okay, let’s try this again. As we look back on this first month of the second quarter of the second year of the deflationary leg of this fifth observed US TL Spot Linehaul rate cycle since 2007, in the immortal words of the great Yogi Berra, “it’s

[Excerpt from The Pickett Line March 2023 Issue] Well, now we know how Michael Corleone must have felt in that scene in Godfather 3 where he laments that “just when I thought was out, they pull me back in!” Though in our case, we are talking about the 3rd quarter floor-seeking leg of the US

[Excerpt from The Pickett Line February 2023 Issue] It is often noted that February tends to be one of the dullest, least eventful months of the freight year – barring a winter storm or an unprovoked Russian invasion to liven things up. And with the majority of the month now behind us, this particular February

[Excerpt from The Pickett Line January 2023 Issue] Geez, we’re barely into the new year and we’ve already gone up and over our first major hill of the 2023 TL spot market roller coaster. We came in like a lion and it is looking like we will go out like a lamb. And while that

[Excerpt from The Pickett Line December 2022 Issue] ‘Twas the eve of inflection, and all through the market Not a Carrier felt optimistic. Thought they might as well park it. Costs remain high, while rates remain low. Cheaper diesel sure helps, but only softens the blow. How long must we wait, before this market finds

[Excerpt from The Pickett Line November 2022 Issue] Now two thirds of the way through this final quarter of 2022 and well into this most wonderful time of the year, we continue to search for reassuring signal of our projected market cycle bottom in US TL Spot Linehaul rates. But as our index continues to

[Excerpt from The Pickett Line October 2022 Issue] Well, we made it ladies and gentlemen. Q4 is finally upon us. And it came in not with a bang but a relative whimper. After a September to remember, we got a pretty mediocre October. But if the last two years have taught us anything, it’s that

[Excerpt from The Pickett Line September 2022 Issue] Well, that was unexpected. September is typically one of the quieter months of the year with regard to the US TL Spot Linehaul Rate Cycle and the macroeconomic data that we track as leading, lagging, and coincident indicators. There are no market-moving seasonal shifts to really account

[Excerpt from The Pickett Line August 2022 Issue] And we’re off. The family vacations and road trips are all over (we did eventually ‘get there’) and the kids are all headed back to school. So, with summer settling into the rearview mirror as we move further into Q3, we now look forward to shorter days and autumn

[Excerpt from The Pickett Line July 2022 Issue] Here we are in late July and well into the dog days of summer. As we kick off Q3 and peer into our US Truckload market crystal ball once again, what immediately comes to mind is a question that many of us with young children get a

[Excerpt from The Pickett Line June 2022 Issue] Well, this is what a US TL deflationary cycle trough feels like Ladies and Gentlemen. Only this time around, we also get the specter of a looming US economic recession to contend with at the same time. If the ride up wasn’t stomach-churning enough, the ride down

[Excerpt from The Pickett Line May 2022 Issue] While Spring has sprung across the Northern Hemisphere, bringing with it the promise of more favorable climate conditions in the months ahead, the outlook for both the US TL market and the broader economy continues to deteriorate. But as is the nature of seasons, for good or

[Excerpt from The Pickett Line April 2022 Issue] With a wildly volatile first quarter finally behind us and as we march further into Q2 and our first preliminary Y/Y deflationary read of the current US TL Truckload Spot Linehaul Rate Cycle, we thought it appropriate to kick off this April 2022 installment of The Pickett

[Excerpt from The Pickett Line March 2022 Issue] And that’s a wrap ladies and gentlemen. Q1 is now officially in the rearview mirror. To say that a lot has happened over the last three months would be a colossal understatement. Looking back as we close out this first quarter of 2022, let’s take some inventory.

[Excerpt from The Pickett Line February 2022 Issue] My what a difference a month can make. Now two thirds of the way through the first quarter of 2022, we find that the global supply chain still can’t get a break. The good news is new Omicron infections in the US have plummeted over 90% from

[Excerpt from The Pickett Line January 2022 Issue] Well, here we are. After an exhausting 2021 ride on the US TL Spot Market roller coaster, we have now punched our ticket for round two and the journey into 2022 begins – where most of the market could probably do with perhaps a little less excitement

[Excerpt from The Pickett Line December 2021 Issue] But here we are at last: the December 2021 issue of The Pickett Line. If you are reading this, it means you’ve just about done it. You’ve just about made it to the end of 2021. You’ve managed to survive the stomach-churning twists and turns over the

[Excerpt from The Pickett Line November 2021 Issue] And onward we go. Now more than halfway through the final quarter of 2021, we find ourselves leaning into the heart of the peak retail spending season while battling an array of global supply chain challenges that show little sign of easing anytime soon. In other words,

[Excerpt from The Pickett Line October 2021 Issue] Well, we survived yet another quarter of this 2021post-COVID US TL Market roller coaster so onward we go into one of the most dynamic and challenging to predict Q4s in recent memory. We are all well aware of the general state of disruption and chaos that most

[Excerpt from The Pickett Line September 2021 Issue] Welcome to the September issue of The Pickett Line, where it’s been all about Ida this month as we prepare to wrap up Q3 and dig in for what is expected to be one of the more interesting fourth quarters in recent history given the broad range

[Excerpt from The Pickett Line August 2021 Issue] As many of you may recall, the theme of last month’s issue was ‘Back on Track’. With Q2’s Uri-driven kink finally behind us, July data through the 25th pointed to a Q3 read that implied that the TL Spot Market Rate Cycle had returned to a trajectory

[Excerpt from The Pickett Line July 2021 Issue] If the first 25 days of July are representative of the Q3 ahead of us, we are back on track – at least from a US TL Rate Cycle standpoint. After suffering the most extreme inflationary kink observed last quarter in fifteen years of tracking the US

[Excerpt from The Pickett Line June 2021 Issue] Well, the jury is back and the verdict is in. You may recall that the theme of last month’s The Pickett Line was “In the case of ‘To Peak or not to Peak?’, the jury’s still out.” Halfway through the most extreme cycle kink observed in15 years

[Excerpt from The Pickett Line May 2021 Issue] After a series of volatile freight months characterized by market shocks and sometimes violent swings in relative capacity levels and rates, the last few weeks of April and into May have been relatively tame in comparison – despite CVSA Roadcheck May 4th-6th, the Mother’s Day flower surge,

[Excerpt from The Pickett Line April 2021 Issue] Welcome to Q2 2021, where just about every market and economic data point will look outrageously positive when compared to last year’s Q2 COVID crash. With another month now behind us and as we enter the 2nd quarter of what we have often characterized as the great

[Excerpt from The Pickett Line March 2021 Issue] Exactly one month ago today and at the midpoint of the quarter, our Q1 DAT TL Spot Index had faded lower to +31.5% Y/Y vs. the January read of +38.3% – and sat well below the current cycle’s Q4 2020 high water mark of +40.2% Y/Y. And

[Excerpt from The Pickett Line February 2021 Issue] As we cross the halfway mark of the quarter, the case for Q4 2020 representing this cycle’s inflationary inflection point has only strengthened. If the US TL spot market cycle were a literal roller coaster, this would be the time in the ride where, after a rickety

[Excerpt from The Pickett Line January 2021 Issue] Happy New Year. And what a start to the new year it has been. As we closed out an extraordinarily difficult and painful 2020, uncertainty around the scale of global vaccine distribution programs, the scope of additional fiscal stimulus, and the ultimate shape of the economic recovery in

To quote Sir John Templeton, “The four most dangerous words in investing are: this time it’s different.” The same can be said about the US Truckload Freight Market. To say that 2020 has been a year defined by volatility, uncertainty, and hardship is of course a colossal understatement. Now as we find ourselves in the